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2024 Review & 2025 Outlook

Our 2024 Review and 2025 Projections
 
In reflecting over 2024, it didn’t take long for the perfect descriptor for the metro Denver market to arise; “noisy”. Noisy, due to a continuous stream of attention seeking headlines about mortgage rates, the NAR lawsuit, changes to Realtor practices, inventory exploding, etc. Noisy, because those stories caused a lot of uncertainty, anxiety and second guessing. And noisy, because ultimately none of it really mattered or had a meaningful impact. Instead, 2024 ended up continuing the return to “normal” that we saw start in 2023. And as we look into 2025, the general feeling is that this trend will continue, but minus all the noise.
 
As I write this in mid-January, the overall consensus for metro Denver is another year of slight increases in prices on detached homes, inventory levels continuing to remain higher than has been seen in years, and for mortgage rates to float around 6% - 7%. In other words, a “normal” market. Heck, the Broncos even made it back to the playoffs finally – if that isn’t a sign of things getting back to normal around here, what is?!
 
BUT --- given how strong the consensus is around these expectations; most likely this won’t be what happens at all! While I don’t buy into conspiracy theories or operate as a contrarian, I can’t shake this feeling that given how in-line all the various projections are, it must be time for some type of a macro shock to shake all this up. I’d be happy to be wrong about that when I reflect in next year’s letter. Regardless of whether I am right or wrong, Erin and I will be here to guide you and your friends through it - while cutting out the noise.
 
2024 Real Estate Market Review
 
The main story in 2024 was the increase in inventory. While people spent 2023 and the first part of 2024 waiting for rates to drop before listing their home, eventually the demands of life changes outweighed the hope for a lower rate, and sellers started bringing more homes to market. Nearly 56,000 homes were listed; almost 13% more than 2023. And many of these listings were snapped up by excited buyers, with more than 42,000 homes closing; 1.3% more than 2023. The homes that didn’t sell led to more active listings each month, peaking at just over 11,000 units in September, before dropping to about 6900 at year end. We have to go back to 2013 to see that level of active listings at year end. So there are more options out there for buyers than we have seen in a long time. Buyers have more negotiating power now, and multiple offer scenarios aren’t nearly as common (although they do still happen on homes that are styled correctly and appropriately priced). But even with this increased inventory, we are still working with around two months of inventory for detached homes, or three months for attached/condos. (Special note: condos are seeing increasing challenges due to rising HOA dues and special assessments; reach out to talk about these factors if you are at all involved with a condo or other HOA property.)
 
Our 2024 Projections: Hit or Miss?
 
1. Home Sales
2024 PROJECTION: Home sales to be up 5% to 10%
2024 ACTUAL +8.3% detached, +1.3% over all
Mix: detached sales were in line at +8.3%, but condos down 15% lead to +1.3% overall
 
2. Home Prices
2024 PROJECTION: Prices to be up 7% to 9%
2024 ACTUAL Prices went up +3%
Miss: detached prices were up slightly, but attached were down. Blended up just 3%
 
3. Mortgage Rates
2024 PROJECTION: 30-year mortgage rate down to mid 5%
2024 ACTUAL: Slightly higher.
Miss: rates briefly dropped in the fall, but overall have stayed higher than expected
 
4. Bidding Wars
2024 PROJECTION Bidding wars on 50% - 65% of homes
 2024 ACTUAL ~30% of homes had multiple offers.
Miss: bidding wars still occasionally happening, but not as often as expected
 
5. Year End Inventory
2024 PROJECTION: Year-End Inventory Lower
2024 ACTUAL: Year-End Inventory +38%
 Miss: Significantly more inventory than expected; great opportunities for buyer
 
In short, I missed on pretty much every projection for last year – as did everyone else. Such is the challenge of making predictions! But I’ll own that. And I’ll confidently say that I have 2025 figured out (right?)!
 
Our 2025 Projections
 
Looking out across 2025, my current predictions are as follow:
  1. Existing home sales up 3% - 5% over 2024
  2. Prices to be 0% - 3% higher at year end 2024
  3. 30 yr mortgage rate to be range bound between 6% - 7%, (+/- .25%)
  4. Average days on market runs between 45-60 days
  5. Yearend inventory 15% - 20% higher than 2024.
HOWEVER, things feel too "certain" right now, especially around mortgage rates. So our "bonus" projection is that a major macro change happens, rates drop quickly, and in the second half, the market becomes very competitive and busy!
 
No matter how 2025 plays out, it will be more important than ever for you or your friends to have professional, experienced and well-connected representation working on your behalf. On average, you know four people that are thinking of buying or selling a home in the coming year. Would you please make it a goal to connect us with at least one of those people? And that includes people moving in other states. We have a very strong network of highly skilled agents across the country and are confident that we can connect your friends or family with a great fit. And as you consider options here in the metro Denver area, please be sure to reach out to us at any time with ideas, questions or concerns. With more than 40 years of collective experience, we have seen it all, and are ready for whatever comes next. As always, we are honored to help!
 

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